Autumn arrives and career-defining races take place at the Arc and beyond

circleWith the Arc Trial at Longchamp Racecourse on Sunday afternoon plus four Group 1 races at the Curragh Racecourse on the second day of Ireland’s Festival of Champions, a weekend of top-level racing in four countries and two continents has finally come to an end and many horse racing fans will be suffering from serious information overload.

There was probably a sense of exhaustion shared between Oisin Murphy and William Buick as they raced in a Grade 1 race at Woodbine Racecourse in Toronto, Canada on Saturday before crossing the Atlantic to Ireland just hours later, as autumn arrived and a career-defining race to decide the 2024 champions across all age groups and divisions began.

Pre-race markets for next year’s 1000 Guineas, 2000 Guineas and, more immediately, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp on October 6th were all the talk of big moves on Sunday afternoon. With the premier event in European horse racing just around the corner, it’s only natural to start with this race.

Luc de Vega entered Sunday’s Group 2 Prix Niel as the unbeaten winner of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (French Derby) and was the clear market leader for the Arc at around 7-2 with British bookmakers. Without an unbeaten record or the favorite to win the Arc, he finished third out of five behind Andre Fabre’s Saussy, who unsurprisingly took his place as top bettor at around 5-1.

The race is likely to garner plenty of YouTube views over the next three weeks as fans across Europe compare the results of middle-distance races in France, Britain and Ireland, and it could well be the race that sees the greatest French trainer of all time, and some argue the best in Europe, win a record-extending ninth Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

Trial races like the Neil can wax and wane in terms of their importance, but it still seems a bit surprising that the last colt to complete the Neil and Arc double in the same year was the Fabre-trained Rail Link in 2006. In the 1990s and first few years of the 2000s, Neil winners also won the Arc with surprising regularity, including Carnegie (1994), Helicio (1996), Sagamix (1998), Montjeu (1999), Cinder (2000) and Hurricane Run (2005).

However, since the Rail Link year the race has gone through a period of decline in terms of its relevance to the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, which may reflect a total reluctance by leading trainers to run trial races, particularly with global programmes expanding dramatically in the autumn and a desire to keep their horses fresh.

But Fabre is an old-school guy, and he has his own way when it comes to preparing an inexperienced, slow-growing 3-year-old colt for the Arc.

Saussy was defeated by two lengths by Luc de Vega in the Prix de Jockey Club but won the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe in July over that course and distance, and unless Favre has suddenly forgotten what he’s learned in the 40 or so years since Prix Neal winner Trempolino gave Favre his first victory in 1987, Saussy will undoubtedly be even better for Sunday’s race.

The same, of course, applies to Luc de Vega, who never stepped foot on a racetrack until last November, winning the Jockey Club Stakes in early June on just his third start, and who was the second favourite at around 6-1 for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe before finishing third and fourth respectively in Saturday’s Irish Champion Stakes, just one head behind Japanese challenger Shin Emperor and Irish Derby winner Aidan O’Brien’s Los Angeles at 8-1 and 10-1 respectively.

The field of British-trained runners for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is somewhat thin but Ralph Beckett’s magnificent Blue Stocking, who won Sunday’s Prix Vermeil, the other Group 1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe trial, undoubtedly deserves a place among the field and will be favoured at odds of around 12-1.

O’Brien’s Lake Victoria won the Group One Moyglare Stud Stakes on Sunday over a field that included the much-favoured Bedtime Story, setting up a major move in next year’s classic racing market.

She is currently the joint favorite along with another O’Brien-trained filly, Fairy Godmother, for next year’s 1,000 Guineas, but the stable suffered a surprising upset in the second Group 1 2-year-old race on the card when 5-6 favorite Henri Matisse saw her unbeaten record snapped in the National Stakes by losing to Joseph O’Brien’s Scorsese Champ (12-1).

The pecking order for the 20-year-olds will slowly become clearer over the next few weeks at races at Longchamp, Newmarket and Del Mar in California. But what will be more interesting than any other horse after a whirlwind weekend on the racetrack is the possibility that 78-year-old Andre Fabre might become the first trainer in 50 years to win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Longchamp is the next stop on the sport’s annual world tour, and Sauchy will be the center of attention.