Tony Keenan’s Leopardstown preview and best bets

Irish Horse Racing Predictions: Saturday 15th September

0.5 pt ew Hanalia in the Curragh 2.25 (1,2,3 1/5 10/1 General)

0.5 pt Soaring Monarch wins Curragh 5.55 (12/1 General)

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Carla handled the drama of yesterday’s thrilling Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown well, but with four Group 1 races today there’s no shortage of top-class action – three of which have Aidan O’Brien as favourite and one which, unusually, has no runners.

Kyprios was the shortest but most solid in the Comer Group International Irish St. Leger in 4:45, and his two popular two-year-olds, Bedtime Story and Henri Matisse, are facing fairly strong fields, albeit at fairly long odds.

Only five horses will run in the Moyglare Stud Stakes (3:00), but four of them will be significant, so I’m betting on Lake Victoria. Red Letter should have won on debut, but Aidan O’Brien can improve immensely from start to start, as he did when he won Lake Victoria’s second start at the July Races, and the trainer commented beforehand that he could improve even more with the break he had along the way.

Henri Matisse doesn’t have the big reputation that the Ballydoyle horse who contested the Goffs Vincent O’Brien National Stakes (4:10) has had in the past and his last Futurity win was a little difficult to interpret – was his late race slowdown a sign of spare time or temperament?

A horse that should come close to him from that race is Scorsese Champ, who was coming off a rest day but still ran a great third, running well until he was slightly overtaken and then held on well towards the end, and he has a rare win on his juvenile debut for Joseph O’Brien this season which speaks volumes about his calibre.

In terms of selection, the races on the shoulder may be more interesting. The Irish Oaks looks the key race given the subsequent performances of You Got To Me and Content at York, with the Moyglare Jewels Branford Stakes at 2:25. Purple Lily and Elizabeth Jane finished third and fourth respectively on the day and both have clear claims, but the former prefers slow ground and the latter is from a stable that has five wins from 87 runners since early July, although Dermot Weld has an excellent record in this race.

Probably 5th in the Irish Oaks, Hanaleais the most interesting odds-wise. She won the Nurse Oaks Trial in late June straight out of a maiden race, stormed from behind to take the lead near the finish line and then seemed ideally suited to the strong 10 furlongs, with officials expressing concerns about her running the mile-and-a-half race.

We then decided to fill her in for the Irish Oaks, despite there being some doubt about the course of the race, and despite having some trouble she ran well behind Purple Lily and Elizabeth Jane, showing sharp pace and looking better suited to the shorter distances.

Johnny Murtagh had opted to run the horse over nine furlongs last time out and pre-race comments suggested this was preparation for this race, and although the distance seemed too short the filly looked in good form to make up ground from three to one furlongs out and her efforts paid off.

This afternoon’s run should be more suitable and we can expect a decent pace in the race.

The final race of the Irish Stallion Farm EBF Northfield Handicap at 5:55pm was not as competitive as in recent years, with 14 horses declared for the race instead of the usual 20 or more. Soaring Monarch The price seems too high this morning.

His form this season has been better than his numbers suggest, and on his return race over a mile at Galway he was held up in a slow race and was not a winner, but he quickly improved in the one and a half mile Premier Handicap at the same track the following day and ran from the dip like a winner, but was unable to finish and finished third.

Alan McIntyre then opted to go the distance in last month’s Irish Cambridgeshire but it all went wrong for him, not only did he get into trouble coming up from behind on a tough course for him but he was on the wrong part of the course where the rear rail was running slower, with Vera’s Secret, winner of the last race at Leopardstown yesterday, already pulling away from that side.

He’s probably better over 10 furlongs at this point in his career and has a good starting position in less fast races, but there are concerns about the track being a little fast and this being his fourth start in a short space of time. Still, this horse looks interesting given the odds.

Preview posted on September 15, 2024 at 8:49am

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